Cook is Wrong

Back to school for me! I feel like boring y'all to tears as I tear down Cook's senate race rankings.

Washington, California, Wisconsin: Likely Dem
Should be: Safe Dem
The incumbents are all entrenched. My objection to these as Likely Dem is that they seem as safe as many of the other Safe Rep or Safe Dem seats. I can't think of someone who would make any of these seats competitive. Arnold doesn't count. If these seats are competitive, Obama has had a troublesome first two years.

Oklahoma: Likely Rep
Should be: Solid Rep
Pretty much the same reasoning as above. OK was McCain's best state.

Illinois: Tossup
Should be: Not tossup (probably Leans Dem)
Yeah, Blagojevich sucks. We know that, and so do the voters of Illinois. That's why I'm confident that Roland Burris (if he runs for reelection) will be primaried. And when he loses the Democratic primary, we will find out again that Illinois is a Democratic state.

Louisiana: Tossup
Should be: Likely R
The incumbent, David Vitter, had a sex scandal in 2007, if you don't remember. But...Louisiana is just such a Republican state now. It was one of four states to give a greater percentage of the vote to McCain than to Bush 2004. I'm not saying Vitter isn't in trouble. I think he will be primaried, and maybe lose. Also, I can't think of a top-tier Dem who would run. Kathleen Blanco? Haha, no. Mitch Landrieu? His sister is the other senator. Ray Nagin? If I'm suggesting Ray Nagin as a top-tier Dem, the pickings are slim. For this to be a tossup, we need a good Democratic opponent, Vitter as the Republican nominee (or someone really extreme), and a good Obama first term. So, likely Republican.

New Hampshire: Solid R
Should be: Leans R
After the 2004 elections, New Hampshire had 2 R representatives and 2 R senators. After the 2008 elections, New Hampshire has 2 D representatives, 1 D senator, and 1 R senator. Judd Gregg needs to watch himself. He can win reelection, but New Hampshire's trending Democratic.

North Carolina: Solid R
Should be: Solid D
The last time someone was reelected to this Senate seat was 1968. Richard Burr is running for reelection. Will he win? Not a chance. Interestingly, this was John Edwards's Senate seat.

Texas: Solid R
Should be: Likely R or N/A (probably N/A)
This is worth a whole entry in itself. Briefly: Governor Rick "Goodhair" Perry will have been governor for 10 years by 2010. He is running for another term. He's pretty unpopular - got 39% of the vote in a 4-way race in 2006. Senator Kay Bailey "Bailout" Hutchison wants to move back to Texas. She's rather more popular than Perry. She is seriously considering running for Governor and primarying Perry. But I refuse to believe that she is running until she resigns from her senate seat or files the paperwork to run for Governor. Up until that time, the race rating should probably be N/A - she is up for reelection in 2012.

But people believe she is running. Democrats like John Sharp (former comptroller) and Bill White (mayor of Houston) have declared their candidacy for a senate race that does not even exist yet. Could they win? I think White, at least, has a shot. He's a good mayor. Problem is, if you're outside the greater Houston metropolitan area, you've probably never heard of him. Also, Texas is still a pretty Republican state. That will change, but maybe not in time for 2010.

Snow watch: Yep, there was snow today. I measured 0.75 inches, probably including a bit from yesterday. Not too much, but any snow is exciting to me.

Algebra seminar tomorrow! Only 3 hours!