Cook is Wrong

Back to school for me! I feel like boring y'all to tears as I tear down Cook's senate race rankings.

Washington, California, Wisconsin: Likely Dem
Should be: Safe Dem
The incumbents are all entrenched. My objection to these as Likely Dem is that they seem as safe as many of the other Safe Rep or Safe Dem seats. I can't think of someone who would make any of these seats competitive. Arnold doesn't count. If these seats are competitive, Obama has had a troublesome first two years.

Oklahoma: Likely Rep
Should be: Solid Rep
Pretty much the same reasoning as above. OK was McCain's best state.

Illinois: Tossup
Should be: Not tossup (probably Leans Dem)
Yeah, Blagojevich sucks. We know that, and so do the voters of Illinois. That's why I'm confident that Roland Burris (if he runs for reelection) will be primaried. And when he loses the Democratic primary, we will find out again that Illinois is a Democratic state.

Louisiana: Tossup
Should be: Likely R
The incumbent, David Vitter, had a sex scandal in 2007, if you don't remember. But...Louisiana is just such a Republican state now. It was one of four states to give a greater percentage of the vote to McCain than to Bush 2004. I'm not saying Vitter isn't in trouble. I think he will be primaried, and maybe lose. Also, I can't think of a top-tier Dem who would run. Kathleen Blanco? Haha, no. Mitch Landrieu? His sister is the other senator. Ray Nagin? If I'm suggesting Ray Nagin as a top-tier Dem, the pickings are slim. For this to be a tossup, we need a good Democratic opponent, Vitter as the Republican nominee (or someone really extreme), and a good Obama first term. So, likely Republican.

New Hampshire: Solid R
Should be: Leans R
After the 2004 elections, New Hampshire had 2 R representatives and 2 R senators. After the 2008 elections, New Hampshire has 2 D representatives, 1 D senator, and 1 R senator. Judd Gregg needs to watch himself. He can win reelection, but New Hampshire's trending Democratic.

North Carolina: Solid R
Should be: Solid D
The last time someone was reelected to this Senate seat was 1968. Richard Burr is running for reelection. Will he win? Not a chance. Interestingly, this was John Edwards's Senate seat.

Texas: Solid R
Should be: Likely R or N/A (probably N/A)
This is worth a whole entry in itself. Briefly: Governor Rick "Goodhair" Perry will have been governor for 10 years by 2010. He is running for another term. He's pretty unpopular - got 39% of the vote in a 4-way race in 2006. Senator Kay Bailey "Bailout" Hutchison wants to move back to Texas. She's rather more popular than Perry. She is seriously considering running for Governor and primarying Perry. But I refuse to believe that she is running until she resigns from her senate seat or files the paperwork to run for Governor. Up until that time, the race rating should probably be N/A - she is up for reelection in 2012.

But people believe she is running. Democrats like John Sharp (former comptroller) and Bill White (mayor of Houston) have declared their candidacy for a senate race that does not even exist yet. Could they win? I think White, at least, has a shot. He's a good mayor. Problem is, if you're outside the greater Houston metropolitan area, you've probably never heard of him. Also, Texas is still a pretty Republican state. That will change, but maybe not in time for 2010.

Snow watch: Yep, there was snow today. I measured 0.75 inches, probably including a bit from yesterday. Not too much, but any snow is exciting to me.

Algebra seminar tomorrow! Only 3 hours!

Caroline Kennedy!

So I guess the current liberal polarization du jour is Caroline Kennedy. Now I know none of y'all care much about Caroline Kennedy, and I don't much either. It's probably worth caring about her more than Rick Warren though because she's in the position to be a senator, and the Senate is where legislation goes to die. Unless it passes! But don't worry, the Republicans don't believe in helping out Obama by passing his legislation.

Oh yeah, and Governor Paterson sez he's already decided who the replacement will be. (Wait, for Aether and those who don't know: Hillary's probably gonna be Secretary of State, and Paterson needs to name her replacement, who will possibly be Ms. Kennedy.) I tend to be against Ms. Kennedy, because...what exactly has she done in life? She hasn't been elected to any political office. She's a lawyer. She also raised $65 million for NYC public schools, which sounds like a lot but it's a big city, so I'm not sure how much that amount actually means. She endorsed Obama in early 2008 which is the first I had heard of her actually doing something. She filled out a questionnaire for the NY Times saying her political views - mainstream stuff, she supports gay marriage, undivided Jerusalem, other stuff. But we didn't know all this before she filled out the questionnaire! That's a problem. She's not doing much press, not hitting Meet the Press or Face the Nation or the Daily Show. (My mom sez she did Meet the Press earlier in the year to talk about her support of Obama, if you're being picky.) You might remember the last prominent female political figure pilloried for not doing many interviews with the press. Her name was Sarah Palin.

Nepotism: Sure, it's not so good in principle, but look at Ted Kennedy. He hadn't done too much in life before being elected to the Senate. Key word: elected! It would probably be best for Paterson to appoint a caretaker, or call a special election - although the latter is expensive. As for nepotism, what can we do about it? Nothing, really - just make sure that the sons and daughters of political figures get elected fair and square, without special help from their parents.

Moment of zen: So I was looking at the Huffington Post earlier, and their headline is O! accompanied by this image. Straight ladies and gay guys: You're welcome.